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Proportion of US storms hitting northern states increases to 16%: Chaucer

cloud storm sky with thunderbolt over rural landscape

The percentage of US hurricanes and storms striking northern states such as New York, New Jersey and New England has increased from 12% 40 years ago to 16% today, according to Chaucer.

Meanwhile, the proportion of hurricanes that hit southern states such as Florida and Georgia as well as the Caribbean has fallen from 60% to 54% in the past 20 years.

States between these two regions, such as the Carolinas, Virginia, Maryland and Delaware, are being hit by proportionally more hurricanes.

Between 1961 and 1980, 24% of all US hurricanes struck these states, compared with 30% in the past two decades.

The study comes after Hurricane Ida surprised the market when it struck both Louisiana and the northeastern part of the US in late August.

Chaucer head of catastrophe research Dana Foley said: “Key aspects of these storms have become more uncertain with the changing climate, and this is driving a need for insurers to redefine their risk models.

“The most severe hurricanes are becoming even more severe. More heat in the system is a key driver of this, and it is having other potentially significant impacts, such as extending the distance inland of strong winds after landfall.

“Many of the historical norms we have relied on for modelling have to be revisited.

“We can expect to see the trend of more severe hurricanes continue as long as the climate continues to warm. This will mean higher windspeeds and greater precipitation, which could ultimately lead to more property damage.”

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