Rates
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Concern about vague cat modeling language was a theme at a Tuesday workshop.
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The casualty segment posted $18mn of favorable reserve development across multiple accident years.
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Property rate increases decelerated to 3% in the quarter.
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A litany of underwriting and quoting constraints has made it much harder to write business.
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For workers’ comp, premium renewal rates were down -0.88% compared to -0.64% for Q4.
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Compared to March, more sources shared accounts of rate declines and oversubscription.
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Ten states joined in the original suit.
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Social inflation is driving “cat-type” losses, with an increase in $50mn-plus verdicts.
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Retentions and coverage could be affected by future adverse claims trends.
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Given ample capacity and no sharp increase in demand, a market sea change is not expected, barring an unforeseen economic event.
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WTW said adverse development “is evident” in auto liability lines from 2015 to present.
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Premium inflation holds, as loss-cost inflation trends continue to moderate.
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This continues a consecutive quarterly gain of over 6%.
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Personal lines rate filings are rising, even as some inflation drivers slow.
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Commercial property rates for February rose 10.77%, up from 10.30% in January.
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Premiums rose an average of 7% across all lines, down from Q3.
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Carriers expressed confidence on the line’s ability to withstand medical inflation.
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Otis could be a $2bn-$3bn loss, but more information is expected before June renewals.
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CSAA writes over 70% of its business in the Golden State.
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This follows a record-breaking $63bn of premium and 24.1% growth for 2022.
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The carrier expects to "get smaller in New Jersey" due to lack of rate adequacy.
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The broker said softening was emerging in some lines, but cat risks remain challenging.
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The index’s 2023 peak was Q2, when rates increased 19%.
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The growth positives of last year are showing signs of fading.
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Falling rates in finpro and increased competition in property drove the trend.
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Commercial property pricing rose 11%, while personal auto grew 21.9%.
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Broker earnings reflect shifting tailwinds, with margins revealing the real winners.
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The drivers are not surprising, but the extent of development is, execs said.
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Property rate increases decelerated to 6% in Q4, compared to 7% in Q3 and 10% in Q2 2023.
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Rates are generally cheaper than the admitted market.
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The average 2023 premium renewal rate change for commercial property was significantly higher than 2022 across all months.
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The broker’s Q4 programs reinsurance change led to a one-time $19mn charge that will allow it to reduce its PML exposure.
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Organic growth will slow from historically elevated levels and the increased cost of debt will take its toll.
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The brokerage reported that polled carriers, however, have pointed to ransomware activity reverting to 2019 levels to argue current pricing is unsustainable.
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A “return to minimal valuation increases can be expected soon”, the broker wrote in its 2024 P&C market outlook report.
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European rates on line increased by 7.60%, while in the US prices were up 5.25%.
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2024 is likely to be another challenging year for the industry, and commercial in particular, though improvement in personal lines may soften the blow.
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The broker said over-placement on some deals was a positive sign for brokers, though reinsurance capacity is still very tight in some areas.
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Reinsurers are making some adjustments to secure target signings but appetite to grow is finely balanced.
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Carriers aren’t calling off their retreat from the market until tangible, actionable regulations emerge from commissioner Lara’s camp, sources told this publication.
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The need to recognize adverse development in the back book is the most plausible culprit for market behavior, and an escalation of rhetoric.
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Cooling CPI metrics and improving loss ratios indicate a positive shift for the personal auto industry, but results are not yet back to where they need to be.
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The 2024 budget increases net operating expenses to $40.2mn, up from $35.2mn in the 2023 budget.
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Anticipations of a tug-of-war around a ‘flat to slightly up’ pricing renewal have indeed come to fruition.
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Personal auto carriers risk falling behind in the battle between loss costs and approved rate declines, while homeowners carriers’ double-digit filings might not be enough to keep up.
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The executive expects the carrier to write “a bit more” property cat business in the coming renewals as it manages the exposure of its entire book.
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Of the major commercial lines of business tracked by Ivans, all experienced increases in premium renewal rate changes except commercial property and general liability.
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The state is already experiencing affordability challenges, and regulators are concerned that an availability crisis is brewing.
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Insurance Insider US’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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Issues over reinsurance pricing and capacity continued to plague commercial property.
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Profits are expected to widen thanks to improved rates and higher average attachment points.
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Insurers should reserve as conservatively as possible, maximize their product set, and decide if they are buyers or sellers.
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Insurance Insider US’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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Meanwhile, the company’s October cat losses came in below the reporting threshold of $150mn, compared eith $317mn of cat losses in September and nearly $1.2bn for Q3.
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Slowing loss cost trends may signal relief ahead, but only if carriers remain vigilant on rate action until we are past the peak.
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The ratings agency said the change reflected its expectation that the carrier would post improving underwriting results in the next two years.
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Broker and commercial carrier trends separate as inflation slows but rates stay elevated.
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Cedants and brokers are navigating the complexities of varying risk appetites signaled by reinsurers, who are willing to provide more capacity for cat treaty but only at certain layers as they maintain discipline.
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Compared to September, all major commercial lines of business tracked by Ivans experienced increases in premium renewal rate changes.
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The decline marked the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit pricing declines.
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TWIA has raised its net operating expenses to $40.2mn.
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Commercial insurance pricing remained flat, increasing by 3% globally over the period, the same as the prior quarter.
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Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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CNA continued to push for rate in lines of business affected by social inflation in Q3, as CEO Dino Robusto said the carrier was “pleased that there is an increasing awareness for this need in the marketplace”.
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Chubb NA property soared 23% in Q3 with rates up 16.6% and exposure change of 5.5%, as casualty pricing rose 11%, with rates up 8.7% and exposure up 2%.
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The revised status follows the recent announcement that R&Q Insurance Holdings has agreed a sale of its Accredited program.
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“As we look to January 1, the market appears to be more orderly than last year, but we expect underwriting discipline to continue,” CEO John Doyle told analysts.
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Data shows Texas developments parallel some of the trends in other troubled states, but it is heading in from a stronger position.
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In 2022, Texas ranked third in incurred losses behind Florida and California, clocking in at $53bn, according to data from the Insurance Council of Texas.
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Commercial property rates in Hawaii, which sustained a major wildfire event in August, went up to 5.02% that month from 1.65% in July, but remained lower than the average even after the increase.
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Insurance regulators in California and other states signed off much-needed personal lines rate hikes in September.
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Competing forces of loss cost inflation and mixed rate action yield uneven trajectories for the largest commercial lines.
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The executive also recommitted Aon to its mission around creating net new markets – including growing IP – in the wake of the Vesttoo issues.
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Nearly all lines showed “moderate to significant” price increases, except workers' compensation, D&O liability and cyber.
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Inside P&C’s news team runs you through the key highlights of the week.
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The carrier’s E&S property book is “up 29%, with 25 points of rate”, said the executive.
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Floridians will bear the brunt of Idalia's losses as a retention event, but reinsurers will reap the benefits of pricing.
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In contrast, cyber pricing continued slowing down as Q2 rates increased 3.6%, compared with 8.4% in Q1 and 15% in Q4 as the space was hit by increased competition.
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Board members voted five to four in favor of rate increases but fell short of the two-thirds majority required.
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In California, the carrier filed for a 35% increase this quarter after implementing a 6.9% rate hike in April.
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It marked the highest YoY growth this year, followed by 46% growth in January and 40% in June.
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At the same time, insurers are assessing the level needed to address loss cost trends.
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The carrier is set to achieve 20% rate increases in auto this year, with the same rate increase likely to be needed in 2024 to achieve its 2025 targets.
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Chubb NA property rates climbed 22% in the second quarter, driven by higher cat losses, inflation and reinsurance costs.
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CEO Adam Kembrooke said some markets would struggle to maintain the results they’ve posted historically, after the point of pricing equilibrium in the cyber class.
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This year’s rate adequacy analysis showed that Twia’s rates are inadequate by 20% for residential coverage and 22% for commercial.
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Its long-term issue credit ratings was upgraded to “aa-“ (superior). The changes were made in recognition of the parent company’s improved financials.
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Personal lines underperform predictions, while brokers and InsurTechs are a positive surprise (for now).
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Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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Loss-free accounts were generally up 20%-50% at renewal, the reinsurance broker said.
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Rates continue to rise through June, with the homeowners’ weighted average rate change coming in at 8% for the month, while auto rates increased by a significant 11.3%.
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Reinsurers began relaxing limits on US property exclusions, but the lack of new start-ups points towards stability amid a more orderly market, the broker forecast.
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Inside P&C’s news team runs you through the key highlights of the week.
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Despite reinsurers’ concerns over social inflation and loss trends, capacity remains abundant in both quota share and XoL deals, sources say.
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California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara was speaking about climate change's impact on insurance pricing at the Bermuda Climate Summit.
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The hard reinsurance market and elevated cat losses continued to drive rate increases.
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The broker said increased reinsurance costs had not been passed onto customers.
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Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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For the business line, this is the first month-on-month slowdown since October 2022.
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The broker said clients could save money, increase limits and buy extra coverage.
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Considering recent reforms, Citizens’ rates, on average, are still 58.6% below actuarially sound levels, but the inadequacy would have been 88.3% without them.
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H1 2023 renewal rates for wind and fire-exposed properties in Florida, Louisiana and Texas increased more than 300% in some cases, exceeding the broker’s January forecast.
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Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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Even clean accounts in the admitted space are seeing rate increases of 15% year on year, while loss-hit accounts in Florida were slapped with a 100% rate increase for June 1.
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Continuing rises in loss frequency and severity plus a difficult regulatory framework make the situation in California highly challenging for carriers.
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Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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Early private deals have provided far more stability in this year’s renewal than last.
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Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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The average increase in commercial property premiums was 20.4% during the quarter due to inflation, natural catastrophes and persisting supply chain issues.
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The executive said IGI is seeing similar trends in treaty rate renewals during the second quarter of the year.
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Strong results reflect tailwinds in the E&S space, but social inflation will be a trend to watch.
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Used car and truck prices declined 6.6% year on year in April, while new vehicle prices rose 5.4% in the same period.
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Inside P&C’s news team runs you through the key highlights of the week.
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Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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Premium renewal rate increases for most commercial lines of business tracked by Ivans pricing data accelerated in April month on month, except workers' compensation.
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Client fatigue has transitioned to frustration as buyers face a hard commercial property market and inconsistency of coverage.
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Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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Personal lines rates ticked up in April compared to the prior month as insurers try to stay ahead of rising loss costs.
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Though strong growth continues, the future is less clear as driving forces potentially run out of steam.
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Inside P&C’s news team runs you through the key highlights of the week.
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Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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Most lines continued to record price increases, with global rates being propelled largely by rising rates in property insurance.
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Chubb earnings reveal strategic expansion in Asia and pricing outpacing exposure.
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Pricing in NA commercial P&C increased 11.2%, including changes in rate and exposure of 6.4% and 4.5% respectively, while loss cost trends rose 6.7%.
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An uptick in financial markets activity could increase demand, but there is also significant risk which currently isn’t priced into the market.
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D&O (Inside P&C Daily lead story): There is hope that public D&O rates could stabilize in the second half of the year following a tough end to 2022 and an ongoing slump in Q1. Significant discounts granted in 2022 are unlikely to be repeated, and there are ongoing concerns around both economic and social inflation, sources said. In the meantime, rates remain pressured from ample capacity and muted demand as established providers and incumbents drawn to the hard market of past years compete for relatively stagnant demand. The collapse of SVB, while a shock, wasn’t the inflection point for D&O that some might have expected.
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One question in the community is whether nuclear verdicts this year will spark a re-acceleration of rates, especially in the lead excess layers.
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Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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Management was speaking after RLI reported a Q1 combined ratio of 77.9% for Q1 2023, unchanged compared to the prior-year quarter, as top line growth accelerated sequentially to 15.6%.
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Primary insurance rate increases were 10% for property in Q1 compared to 7% in Q4.
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Mark Cloutier set out Aspen’s plans for top-line 2023 growth in the range of 10%, and a continued strategy of pursuing rate rather than exposure growth in property cat.
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This comes as the all-items consumer price index showed only a 5% gain.
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The private broker said replacement cost values in the homeowners' sector will also go up this year to offset increased construction costs and inflation.
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High-impact rate filings in California have driven increases nationwide.
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The recommendations await approval from the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation.
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WTW said driver shortages continue to force contractors to use younger, often less experienced drivers, potentially putting upward pressure on losses.
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Inside P&C’s news team runs you through the key highlights of the week.
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The company is “not seeing any meaningful economic slowdown” within its data.
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Meanwhile, commercial auto rates decelerated to 5.64% from 5.84% last month as umbrella slowed down to 4.98% from 5.59%.
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The all-items CPI increase was the smallest 12-month increase since December 2021.
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The rise marked a deceleration from the increase in Q3, when carriers reported a 5.2% climb, according to WTW figures.
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The push for pricing will continue to be strong as at 1.1, but some sources suggest that the upcoming mid-year renewals could be more orderly.
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Intermediaries have highlighted the ‘evolution’ in reinsurance buying as hard market conditions are expected to continue.
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Rate action for personal auto insurers has been increasing in 2023 to balance rising loss cost trends
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Carrier and broker sources canvassed by this publication indicate that whatever they imagined pre-January 1 reinsurance renewals, the community is experiencing an even harder market.
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Respondents attributed this increase to inflation’s effect on property valuations and the cost of goods, as well as to the natural catastrophe losses.
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The executive’s remarks followed Employers’ Q4 results, where the workers comp specialist’s top line rose 22.4% to $174mn, compared to 24% growth in Q3 2022.
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Experts at the Plus D&O symposium took a deep dive into the issues and uncertainties affecting the D&O market as rates soften.
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Pricing, which includes rate plus exposure, was up 6% for both North America and international.
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Of those, around $309mn were associated with nine events primarily in Texas and California, partially offset by favorable reserve re-estimates for prior events.
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This compares to a 14.2% annual increase in auto insurance prices in December, while the overall index slightly moderated to a 6.4% gain from 6.5% in December.
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Premium bearing transactions increased 6.9% to 5.6 million compared with 2021 totals in the states with surplus lines stamping offices.
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While executives remained upbeat about property rates through 2023, commentary surrounding casualty rates were a bit more cautious, especially on the public D&O space.
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The market has quickly moved away from dramatic hardening in 2020 and 2021 following an influx of capacity.
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The Hanover expects its 2023 ex-cat CoR to be in the 91%-92% range, driven by rate adjustments and changes in personal auto frequency.
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It was the smallest quarterly price increase since Q1 2019.
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Chubb’s balanced view of the market as a whole, and pricing and loss cost trends in particular, puts it ahead of the curve on value creation, despite a difficult economic backdrop.
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The latest move marks a deceleration from December’s 50 basis-point hike, which followed four consecutive increases of 75 basis points.
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The CEO also told analysts there is currently no M&A on the table for Chubb.
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Broker and commercial carrier trends align on economic indicators but diverge on stock performance and 2023 consensus estimates.
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This was the highest single-year increase for the US index since 2006.
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Established players are walking away from writing IPO, SPAC and de-SPAC accounts as increased capacity and falling demand in the sub-class causes rates to crater.
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The executive noted that the quarter marked the 21st quarter of rate increases.
-
Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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For the same period in 2021, the company reported a combined ratio of 98.9%.
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The group’s operating results have improved, but the ratings agency warned that further action could be taken if risk-adjusted capital levels did not rise.
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Month to month, the motor vehicle insurance index in December recorded a 0.6-point increase.
-
Inside P&C’s news team runs you through the key highlights of the week.
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Although 2022 was on balance, a good year, macro-economic issues such as a slowing economy, falling employment, and loss cost reversion could create an overhang for 2023.
-
Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
-
Inside P&C’s news team runs you through the key highlights of the week.
-
Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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Year-on-year rate increases were largest in commercial property, which saw a 7.92% hike in November.
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E&S pricing in Texas increased 28.1% to $10.6bn year-to-date, the stamping office reported.
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This price hike contributed to a premium increase of $695mn in the month, bringing the year-to-date impact of 2022 rate increases to $3.6bn.
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Severely distressed, cat-exposed E&S property accounts could even face 100% price increases, while retentions move significantly upwards.
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The central bank set its policy rate at a range of 4.25%-4.5% – the highest it has been since 2007.
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The storm in Florida will drive primary loss costs up for property carriers even more, due to higher treaty attachment levels, the company’s report read.
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The annual increase represents the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending December 2021.
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Only D&O and workers’ compensation clients experienced price decreases during Q3, according to WTW.
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The broker said a dearth of IPOs had created a “buoyant environment”, with both start-ups and incumbents competing.
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In Texas, the company expects roughly 50% rate increases, whereas in California, the company received approval for a 6.9% increase.
-
Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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While Allstate may be beyond the worst of the reserve charges, execution of initiatives needs to go smoothly for it to get back on track.
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The business line’s premium increases this year were less pronounced than in 2021, when quarterly renewals were in the 50%-200% range.
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Year-to-date Texas surplus lines pricing increased 26% to $9.56bn.
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Inside P&C’s news team runs you through the key highlights of the week.
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Real non-life premiums are forecast to grow by 1.8% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024.
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The implemented price hikes added $307mn in new premium last month, driving the year-to-date rates implementation to $2.9bn.
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Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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Commercial property and auto jumped 11.2% and 7.6%, respectively, while cyber rose 20.3%.
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Secondary perils – which have traditionally been high-frequency, low-severity events – accounted for 70% of all insured losses in 2022.
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Though still significantly elevated, the CPI appears to have peaked in the short term, which may give carriers a chance to catch up on rate.
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Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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Medical inflation – a key input to long-tail loss costs – increased 5.4% year on year but declined 0.5% from September to October.
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The broker expects HNW property rates to go up 8%-12% and auto excess liability rates to rise 15%-20% in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023.
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The slow deceleration of rate increases expected earlier this year now seems unlikely, as carriers face larger losses.
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Progressive’s superior digital distribution and widening auto margins put it far ahead of the competition.
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Private equity is cautious around even the hard market opportunity in cat.
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Axis’ pivot away from property reinsurance comes just as the sector reaches one of the biggest inflection points.
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In Q3, 46% of primary policies renewing with the same limit and deductible received a price decrease, while 16% received a price increase, according to Aon.
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Inside P&C’s news team runs you through the key highlights of the week.
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The commercial lines giant is continuing to execute on its long-term vision of pursuing a global balanced book of business.
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The two specialty insurers reported strong Q3 2022 earnings, continuing to outperform the commercial industry in underwriting gains and value creation.
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Cyber saw the biggest increase in the quarter, while financial and professional lines saw a slight reduction.
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Marsh CEO Martin South added that the broker expected to see property rates easing, but "the reverse is going to be true."
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As casualty lines face higher uncertainty, reinsurers are in a better position to negotiate prices and terms than they were a year ago.
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In August, the CPI moderated to 8.3% compared with a record high of 9.1% in June.
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Normalized cat returns of 25%-30% do not seem to be persuading reinsurers to dial up risk.
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The rate increase was attributed to increased reinsurance costs during this year’s hurricane season.
-
Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
-
As the loss numbers for Hurricane Ian begin to come into focus, three topics to watch are impact from demand surge, litigation trends, and rate activity.
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August was the fifth consecutive month to exceed more than $1bn in premiums, fueling a 26.3% year-to-date increase in premiums written to $7.81bn.
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Themes from this year’s ITC conference in Las Vegas also included the exit of less educated investors, increased appetite for venture debt and the allure of cyber.
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Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
-
Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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The shift impacted IPO, life science and technology companies the most – those that were hit hardest by the upward D&O insurance pricing trends in years past.
-
Inside P&C’s news team runs you through the key highlights of the week.
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August’s overall consumer price index edged up 0.1 points, after no change in the prior month.
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Sources noted that competition has expanded from excess layers into the primary market – and that has been a major development since the beginning of the year.
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Cyber continued to register the largest increase in the period, while D&O saw a small price drop compared to a moderate increase in the previous quarter.
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If the hurricane season continues to be mild, it could impact pricing momentum.
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Premium renewal rate increases for commercial auto, business owners’ policies (BOP) and general liability accelerated in August compared with July, according to Ivans pricing data.
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The broker said some reinsurers were planning for significant growth in property catastrophe as demand is expected to pick up pace.
-
Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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As demand for coverage across a growing number of evolving risks grew, surplus lines premium reached a record $82.7bn last year.
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The broker found reinsurers’ underlying RoE had improved during the period but still fell short of the cost of capital.
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A Moody’s survey of reinsurance cedants found most are expecting cat rate increases to remain in a high-single-to-low-double-digit bandwidth.
-
Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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Less confidence in the ability of insureds to properly value property will make insurers seek to hedge concerns through coverage restrictions or rate increases.
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Consumers expect broad inflation to be around 5% to 6% over the next year but return to pre-Covid levels in the medium term.
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The carrier's president said in some areas of the market, (re)insurers are dropping pricing too soon.
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With pricing decelerating and loss-cost trends potentially reversing, regionals should continue to execute on their present strategy.
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Prices moderated in multiple lines, although property remains hard, and strong cyber demand continues.
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Odyssey Group’s cyber chief Robert O’Connell is looking to raise up to $1bn of capital for a monoline cyber reinsurer.
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The ratings agency also revised the outlook for the long-term rating to ‘stable’ from ‘negative.’
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The motor vehicle insurance index rose 7.4% year on year that month, from 6.0% in June, while the annual gain in all-items CPI dropped to 8.5% from 9.1%.
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Renewal rate increases accelerated for most major commercial lines during the second quarter compared to Q1, except for umbrella and workers’ compensation.
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The company reached the fourth consecutive year achieving rate above loss-cost trends.
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Bucking earlier forecasts that predicted a general slowdown in rate increases, some disclosure has pointed to increased momentum.
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Demotech wrote to more than 15 carriers to warn of a possible downgrade last month.
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Public companies’ primary prices renewed with the same limit and deductible were down 0.5% year on year in Q2 2022, marking the first decline in 17 quarters.
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Business placed in the region had shown the sharpest increases, but is also recording the fastest deceleration.
-
Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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Year to date, premiums written topped $5.6bn, increasing 22.4% from the first half of last year, according to SLTX data.
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Joe Petrelli said Demotech would continue to follow its independent methodology, despite outside pressure.
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The downward trend of securities class actions against public companies is expected to continue in 2022, with the annual filings projected to drop by 7% this year, Woodruff Sawyer said.
-
Inside P&C’s news team runs you through the key highlights of the week.
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Premium renewal rate increases have accelerated for most major commercial lines during the second quarter compared to Q1, except for umbrella and workers’ compensation, according to Ivans pricing data.
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On a call for the broker’s Q2 results, Marsh McLennan president John Doyle indicated overall pricing trends ahead of the full index’s publication.
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It’s still a great time to be a specialty insurer, but uncertainty about future prospects is mounting.
-
Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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The cost of a new car gained 6% last month.
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The executive discussed InsurTech challenges, his priorities for Branch, fundraising, and his concerns about the capital markets.
-
Inside P&C’s morning summary of the key stories to get you up to speed fast.
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Free of past legacy issues, new E&S casualty insurers are putting forward aggressive pricing to win away clients from incumbents.
-
Inside P&C’s news team runs you through the key highlights of the week.
-
The state-backed carrier has seen massive growth in the distressed Florida market.
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Aon said supply chain disruptions are easing, shipping costs are receding and building materials and vehicle pricing are decelerating.
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Brokers may face pressure as the pricing cycle turns and estimates fail to keep up.
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So far, there have been minimal claims related to telemedicine, but industry players are closely tracking it as a key concern in the medmal space.
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Commercial auto, hospitality, public entity and higher ed are among the sectors seeing continued rate hikes and limited capacity, according to CRC Group.
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